Friday, March 3rd 2017, 4:04 am
Things look pretty good for the short term, but we’ll be tracking a storm system nearing the area for the early part of next week that may bring some storms back to the area. Temps today will move back into the upper 60's along with more sunshine and gusty south winds returning. The fire danger issues may increase to near critical levels again, both today and tomorrow, before deeper moisture begins to influence the area ahead of our next main storm system. Before this happens, a weak system may pass well to our south Saturday.
The upper air pattern remains from the northwest to southeast this morning and should flatten slightly over the next 36 hours as a stronger western U.S. trough begins to influence our weather bringing us another chance for scattered showers or storms. And just like our last system, the higher chances may end up across the far eastern third of the state. The EURO and GFS differ regarding the strength and positioning of the trough and these differences are relevant regarding the chance for storm activity with the GFS much more bullish and the EURO somewhat dry. We’ll take a middle position compromise at this point with a near 40% chance Monday night into Tuesday morning. A few sprinkles or spotty showers may occur when the deeper moisture returns across the state, probably Sunday into Monday.
Temps this morning will start with lows in the 30's and highs in the upper 60's north and near 70 south along with south winds at 10 mph gusting to near 20 mph by the afternoon. The lack of significant low level moisture will increase the fire spread across the area. The fire danger will remain quite high both today and tomorrow.
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This weekend will feature morning lows in the 40's and 50's with Saturday highs near 70 and Sunday near the upper 60's. We should have more clouds over the weekend with a notable increase in humidity for the 2nd half of the weekend. A few showers or sprinkles may be possible. Strong south winds are likely this weekend from 15 to 25 mph. Our next storm system will be nearing the area early next week with a chance for showers or storms beginning either late Monday or Tuesday morning. The higher chances may remain across the eastern sections of the area. Temperatures Wednesday will start in the upper 30's with highs in the upper 60's. Thursday south winds will return with lows in the mid-40's and highs in the lower 70s along with gusty south winds.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!
Alan Crone
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