Records Will Likely Fall Thursday.

Another extremely warm day across the state as the data from the OK Mesonet clearly indicates, but no records were set.  The primary reason we did not set a record high is because the record for today happens to be 90, one of only two 90 degree days ever recorded in Tulsa during the month of February.  Those days were Feb 1, 1911 and Feb 22, 1996.  Today, the high has ‘only’ been 82 so well short of the record, but we expect to beat the existing record for tomorrow.  By the way, the normal values for today are 55/33 for the max/min.

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For tonight, we will have generally fair skies with just some high level clouds, and the air is rather dry with dew points in the 30s and 40s as of early this evening.  Ordinarily, that would translate into a rather cool start to the day but we will keep a southerly breeze so overnight temperature should only drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s around the area.

As we go through the day Thursday, those southerly winds will become strong and gusty and despite an increase in high level cloud cover, we should make it into the low-mid 80s.  The record is 81 set back in 1982 so we should beat that.  The other consideration for Thursday is that the strength of the winds, the very warm temperatures, the dormant vegetation and relative humidity levels which will be dropping into the 30% range during the heat of the day all add up to a high fire danger situation. 

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The fire danger will also be a concern on Friday despite much cooler temperatures due to a gusty west or NW wind behind a cool front that will arrive Thursday night.  The front will not have much in the way of any shower activity though with only a very slim chance of an isolated shower or two over the far NE counties.  The reason is that despite the gusty southerly winds we will have all day Thursday, the surface winds will become more SW ahead of the front Thursday night, then shifting to the west behind the front by early Friday morning.  This wind profile will minimize the surface convergence and the system will be moisture starved anyway. 

Notice on the 2 day QPF the lack of any rain anywhere close by.  Another contributing factor to our lack of rain with the cool front is that the deeper, quality moisture has been confined to the system moving off the SE coast of the US.

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By the way, there are a number of counties currently under a burn ban but keep in mind that this often will change from day to day so suggest checking the latest data before making any decisions along those lines.

As mentioned, Friday will be much cooler as you can see on our forecast page and that will be followed by a freeze Saturday morning.  In fact, Saturday looks to be the coolest day of this forecast cycle and one of the few days at or below normal recently.  Sunday will also get off to a cold start but a return to southerly winds will push afternoon temperatures back above normal.  The more recent data runs have now brought a stronger system aloft over the state for Sunday night which will spread more cloud cover our way and a decent shot at showers and potentially some thunder.  This is quite a change from the earlier data sets so am a little reluctant to get too excited about our rain chances as the system in question is currently well out in the Pacific and subsequent data runs may flip from the current wet solution.  At least there is some hope as we do need the moisture.

Right now, Monday looks to have a break between systems as another cold front will be arriving Tuesday night.  That means a return to gusty southerly winds on Tuesday and another big warm-up to end the month of February.  We may have another decent shot at showers or thunder late in the day or that night as the next cold front pushes across the state bringing another cool-down for the middle of next week.

But, that looks to be short-lived as the 8-14 day outlook for that first week of March continues to suggest temperatures will average above normal here in Green Country.  Our chances for any additional moisture of consequence continues to be below normal for that time period as well.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot