Cold, Slight Chance Of Light Wintry Precipitation

Mighty short thermometer today as you can see on the max/min temperature map across the state, courtesy of the OK Mesonet.  For Tulsa, so far the extremes have been 47/39 but we will be colder than that before the midnight hour tonight.  Also, brisk northerly winds at times during the morning and early afternoon pushed wind chill values into the lower 30s.

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Those northerly winds will be subsiding tonight and more from the NE by morning at 10-12 mph.  Much drier air has also moved back over the state but do not expect clear or clearing skies.  In fact, mostly cloudy skies will be the general rule tonight and with a NE breeze, temperatures will fall into the lower 30s.  But, wind chill values will likely be in the 20s for the morning hours. 

Stronger northerly winds will be returning during the day Wednesday as much colder air moves over the state, particularly for the afternoon and night time hours.  Together with a lack of sunshine, that means temperatures will not have much of an opportunity to moderate with upper 30s around mid-day and then falling to near freezing by sunset. However, despite the cloudy skies moisture is very limited aloft and not in the layer needed for any extensive wintry precipitation.  As a result, cannot rule out a very light wintry mix changing over to brief flurries, particularly for the more northern counties.  As you can see, there may even be some light accumulations on grassy and elevated surfaces before it ends that night.  But, the limited moisture and the fact that most of the upper level forcing is much further north suggests that what little wintry weather we do receive will be very light and no major problems are currently anticipated.

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The bigger story will be the coldest air of the season and the coldest since last January.  Brisk northerly winds will keep temperatures falling to near 20 to start the day Thursday and wind chill values will be in the teens and perhaps even single digits for some.  Lots of sunshine will struggle to overcome the cold without much success as daytime highs will struggle to get above the freezing mark.

Light winds and cold, dry air in place will make Friday morning the coldest of this forecast cycle with most locations in the low-mid teens to start the day.  Lots of sunshine and a return to a light southerly wind should produce a decent rebound with afternoon highs in the upper 30s to near 40.

After that, as you can see on our forecast page, gusty southerly winds on Saturday will moderate temperatures and also bring in some moisture with a chance of a few light showers for the more E/SE counties of the state that night and into the morning hours of Sunday.  Another boundary will move through the state early Sunday shifting winds back to northerly and a brief cool-down.  Southerly winds will return for Monday followed by another boundary arriving on Tuesday. 

As you can see on the 7 day QPF map, these systems are not very promising with regard to our receiving much in the way of badly needed moisture.  Again, some light precipitation will be possible late tomorrow and that night and again Saturday night and into the day Sunday, but anything that does fall will be very light.

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Unfortunately, our prospects for any significant moisture are not very promising during the 8-14 day outlook period either.  Temperatures still look to average on the cool side of normal during that period as well.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot