Morning Fog Possible, Otherwise Thanksgiving Looking Good

The cool front that moved through last night did produce some showers and thunder, but rainfall amounts were rather meager for the most part as you can see on the 24 hour rainfall map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet.  Also the lingering cloud cover has pretty much taken all day to clear out and the low level clouds may persist well into the night for the far E and NE counties.  The clouds for much of today together with the NW winds have resulted in a short thermometer with max/min values so far of 56/47 in Tulsa.

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Those NW winds have not brought in the really dry air as dew point temperatures have held in the upper 30s to low 40s.  For tonight, the winds will be light and variable but any clouds and those higher dew point temperatures will keep us from getting as cold as would otherwise be the case.  Right now, it looks like the dew points should drop a few more degrees, but where the skies have cleared the calm winds may result in some fog developing during the late night and early morning hours.  The fog that does develop could be locally quite dense until burning off by mid-morning.  At any rate, all those factors suggest temperatures should bottom out in the mid-upper 30s for most locations which is actually pretty close to normal for this time of year.

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Southerly winds will be picking up during Thanksgiving Day and we should have lots of afternoon sunshine with just some high level cirrus clouds by then.  That means temperatures should shoot up rapidly topping out in the mid 60s which is about 10 degrees above normal.  As a reference, the normal max/min values for this time of year is 57/36.  So, with the exception of the fog potential first thing in the morning, the rest of Thanksgiving Day looks very pleasant.

Another surface front will be pushing across the state that night, but it will be a dry system with no precipitation.  But the northerly winds behind the front together with lots of sunshine should produce near normal temperatures for Black Friday.

We will have another cold start to Saturday morning, but a return to southerly winds will warm things back up over the course of the weekend.  In fact, those southerly winds will be strong and gusty on Sunday which will really impact the overnight lows in particular as you can see on the forecast page.  That will also bring more moisture our way which could result in a chance of showers/storms for Sunday night into the Monday morning time frame.  The cold front that moves through during the day Monday will also bring much cooler air back over the state for Tue/Wed. 

As has been the case with the last several systems, it appears that the better moisture will be east as shown on the 7 day QPF map.  Once again, we will be on the western edge of the potential for significant moisture with the better rains well east of us.  Of course, that is always subject to change as the longer range guidance remains inconsistent for early next week.  In fact, there are some indications that a stronger storm system may develop along about the Tue/Wed time frame, but will have to see more run to run and model to model consistency before getting too excited about those prospects.

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Speaking of inconsistency in the long range data, what had been advertised as a pattern change that would lead to below normal temperatures moving our way in the 8-14 day time frame has flipped and is now showing a return to above normal temperatures after the cool-down early next week. At least it is still suggesting a more unsettled pattern with better chances of precipitation. 

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot