Chance of Rain/Thunder Tuesday.

As expected, freezing temperatures were widespread over the weekend and for many locations, not only did we have our first freeze of the season, but also a rather long time period of below freezing temperatures.  Notice the number of hours below freezing and the lowest air temperature over the past week as recorded by the OK Mesonet.  Those values were all confined to the Friday night/Saturday morning time frame and again Saturday night/Sunday morning. 

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Southerly winds today really warmed things up despite an increase in cloud cover and that combination will keep us from cooling much tonight.  Look for a brisk S/SE wind through the overnight hours and with overcast skies likely by morning, temperatures will only fall into the mid 50s.  Gusty southerly winds on Tuesday will push daytime highs back into the upper 60s to perhaps even near 70 despite mostly cloudy skies.  By the way, the normal diurnal temperature range at this time of year is 58/37 to put things in perspective.

Tuesday night will see another frontal boundary pushing across the state shifting our winds back to the NW and cooling us off again for Wednesday.  That boundary will also provide at least a chance for some showers and perhaps even some thunder along and ahead of it.  Could even see a few light showers over the more western counties by early Tuesday morning but the better chances look to be late in the day and that night, particularly for the more eastern counties.  The moisture return ahead of this system is rather meager and the combination of moisture and the approaching front look to be better for the more eastern counties and on into Arkansas for late in the day and overnight.  As you can see on the QPF, what does fall would be generally very light with better possibilities of some useful rainfall much further east and southeast. Could even be a few marginally severe storms with primarily a wind/small hail threat late in the day or early that night.

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That will set the stage for a pleasant day on Wednesday with lots of sun, a brisk NW wind, and the cooler conditions which will still be above normal as you can see on our forecast page.  That will be the case not only for OK but for much of the U.S. so travel leading into Thanksgiving Day should not be impacted by the weather.

Thanksgiving Day itself is also looking good with light winds and fair skies for the early morning which will result in a near normal start with temperatures in the 30s.  Southerly winds during the rest of the day and just some high level cirrus clouds should allow temperatures to soar to well above normal levels with 60s for daytime highs.

Another boundary will push across the state on Friday which will not amount to much more than a wind shift but will cool temperatures to near normal levels. This system will also be dry so Black Friday is looking very pleasant not only for shopping but for travel for much of the country.  This system will be followed by a return to southerly winds and another warming trend for the weekend. 

After that, the 8-14 day outlook is finally suggesting a pattern change.  Instead of the above normal temperatures which have been the general rule for months now, we will be trending closer to normal during that time frame and would not be surprised if we have a more significant cool-down by the time it is all said and done. 

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This pattern change should also bring with it more unsettled weather with better chances of precipitation.

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We certainly need it as we are currently more than 10” below normal in our yearly rainfall.  Notice for example, how far behind we are across the state over the last 180 days, as recorded by the OK Mesonet.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot