Better Chances Of Showers/Storms Next Few Days

As mentioned in yesterday’s blog, those lower dew point temperatures would allow our nights to be a little milder and as you can see by the overnight lows this morning, that was indeed the case.  Some locations were even in the lower 60s so it certainly was a mild start to our day, relatively speaking. 

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But, the drier air together with abundant sunshine also allows for a big warm-up during the day and our daytime highs were well into the 90s once again, but at least there were no triple digits nor was the heat index an issue.  For Tulsa, the official values were 95/69 for the max/min which compares to the 91/71 normal for this time of year.

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By the way, with one more day in the month to go, so far June is checking in as the 4th driest and the 6th warmest on record.  Not a good start to summer but if it is any consolation, the 3 previous Junes that were drier than this year were relatively wet for the rest of the summer.  At any rate, we do need rain and as you can see on the 7 day QPF map, the potential for a good soaking is a possibility, but that is not a guarantee.  As you can see, there is a tight N-S gradient in the potential amount of rainfall and if the systems that are expected to produce those rains should line up a little further one direction or the other, that could have big impacts on how much any one location receives.

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We might even see a few isolated showers overnight tonight as some activity in KS is trying to move slowly southward.  It is weakening as it does so and we expect a dry start to our day on Thursday.  But, another somewhat stronger system will be affecting the state by the afternoon hours providing more cloud cover for much of the day and a better chance of additional showers/storms as you can see on our forecast page.

The strongest signal for a more widespread event still looks to be during the Thu night/Fri morning time frame.  That should also keep us under mostly cloudy skies for much of Friday and the rain cooled air should also keep our daytime highs in the 80s for a change.

Not for long though as more sunshine and only a few isolated, cooling showers on Saturday should result in daytime highs well into the 90s once again.  Not only that, but those low dew points that have been in place will be back into the 60s if not low 70s by then which will push the heat index back into triple digits.

As the wind flow aloft transitions to a more zonal or westerly flow over the weekend and into next week, one final system looks to move through bringing a decent shot at showers/storms for Sunday.  There may be some residual activity into Monday for Independence Day activities but the chances look rather low right now.  After that, the rest of this forecast cycle looks to be mostly sunny, hot and humid.

Looking further down the road, the long range guidance continues to suggest above normal temperatures along with only scattered showers/storms for the 8-14 day time frame.  That makes our rain chances during the coming days all the more important as we certainly do need a good soaking.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot