Brutal!!! That pretty well sums up today. As mentioned in yesterday’s blog, we were fortunate that our dew point temperature mixed out with some drier air aloft and dropped into the 60s. At the time, the question was whether we would have that good fortune again today. Did not happen as you can see by the maximum heat index map for today, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. Anything above 105 is considered dangerous and we were well above that across the entire area. By the way, heat index values of 110 or more trigger an excessive heat warning by the good folks at the local NWS Office, and that is what we will be dealing with again on Thursday afternoon and quite likely Friday afternoon.
The actual air temperatures for Tulsa were 99/80 for the max/min as compared to 88/68 for normal values. Not only that, but it is likely that we will not drop below 80 by midnight tonight so that 80 degrees for our morning low will be a new record for the warmest morning low on this date. Here are the max/min temperatures elsewhere for today, again courtesy of the OK Mesonet.
Unfortunately, little relief is in sight anytime soon as you can see on our forecast page. As mentioned, excessive heat warnings are in effect again for the next couple of days and there will be very little relief at night. Our nights will remain very warm with morning lows in the mid-upper 70s except for the immediate urban environment where we will be near 80 again to start the day Thursday & Friday. Generally fair overnight skies and a light southerly breeze will be followed by mostly sunny daytime skies and a S/SE wind of 5-15. As mentioned yesterday, there remains the possibility of a weak back door front moving through the area Saturday which should shift our winds to a more E or SE component which would knock a few degrees off temperatures. But, we will still be well above normal and this system does not appear to be much of a rainmaker either.
However, cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm during the late afternoon into the early night time hours, but the chances continue to be minimal. For example, storms have fired near Wichita, KS this evening and those will try to make a run at us tonight. But, they are expected to weaken rapidly after dark and should have minimal impact with the possible exception of the more northern counties tonight.
Although everything is still nice and green, we are starting to get dry. Notice the following chart which shows our rainfall to date, comparison to normal for this time of year, and also the comparison to what we had by this time last year. What a difference a year can make.
Now, notice the 7 day QPF map which is not very promising for us. As mentioned, a few isolated showers/storms could pop up on just about any given day and those few that do occur will be capable of dropping locally very heavy rains in a short time as they will be slow moving. But, there are currently no indications of anything organized nor widespread coming our way that would provide a good, general soaking.
Not only that, but the long range guidance over the 8-14 day time frame continues to suggest a strong signal of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.