Heating Up in the Days Ahead.

Still have not ‘officially’ made it to 90 in Tulsa, but that will change in the days ahead.  Even so, the very light winds, abundant sunshine, and temperatures well into the 80s today did result in the ozone level exceeding the standard.  However, in spite of today’s exceedance a little more of a SE breeze on Wednesday is anticipated so Wednesday is not an Ozone Alert day.

Temperatures across the state did reflect the drier air in place though which allowed morning lows to drop into the lower 60s for the most part after being in the 50s yesterday morning.  Also, the minimum relative humidity was in the 30% range yesterday afternoon and in the 40% range this afternoon.  I mention all that because with the return to SE to S winds in the days ahead, the moisture levels will be rising with dew points reaching the upper 60s if not the lower 70s.  That in turn will result in much warmer nights, more uncomfortable humidity levels during the heat of the day, and a few more passing clouds.  Notice the max/min temperature map for today, courtesy of the OK Mesonet which shows the big warm up this afternoon after the pleasant morning start.

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The very light NE winds today will be light and easterly for tonight and then a more SE wind for Wednesday.  Dew point temperatures will be slowly rising but the minimum relative humidity should still drop to below 50% with afternoon temperatures near 90.  A few passing clouds can be expected but mostly sunny skies will be the general rule for the next several days.

In fact, as you can see on our forecast page, temperatures at night as well as during the day will be gradually climbing during the rest of the week as the moisture levels also increase.  That will make it more uncomfortable for outdoor activities as you can see on the muggy meter by late this week.  If those dew point temperatures do make it into the lower 70s, then the muggy meter reflects what that will feel like; not a pretty picture.

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Our chances of any cooling showers are in the slim to none category until the weekend or early next week.  Even then, it looks like any showers or storms will be rather spotty.  Notice the 7 day QPF map which also suggests that any storms that can form will be capable of dropping some decent rains.  The buildup of moisture will bring more cloud cover into the area and a weak upper level system could set off some showers/storms, but do not look for them to be widespread as this does not look to be a very strong system at this time.

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Looking further down the road, the 8-14 day guidance suggests temperatures will remain above normal along with only limited additional chances of precipitation at best.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot