Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Active Week Ahead

The showers and thunder that moved in this morning left behind some outflow boundaries which were a focus for additional development as we have gone through the afternoon.  Therefore, the cloudy skies and showers helped hold temperatures down for today as well as dropped some decent rainfall.  Notice the 24 hour rainfall map and keep in mind additional showers and storms were still taking place at the time this map was created by the good folks at the OK Mesonet.

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However, since we did not get any sunshine to speak of we did not warm up much today and that also mitigates the severe potential.  Cannot say the same for our western neighbors though where another round of severe storms is developing in the TX Panhandle as I write and moving eastward.  That activity will weaken considerably as it moves our way and Green Country will likely be left with some residual showers/storms again for the late night hours and into the morning hours of Tuesday.

Another round of storms is then expected to develop again in far W OK Tuesday afternoon and those storms moving our way again Tuesday night and weakening by the time they reach us late that night or into the morning hours of Wednesday.  For both Tuesday and Wednesday, cannot rule out some spotty showers/storms also forming during the day along those residual outflow boundaries and there remains the possibility that a few of those could become severe with primarily a wind/hail threat; after all this is May.

But the more significant threat of severe weather for E OK looks to be Thursday.  Notice the upper level wind chart valid this morning.  The level shown is the 300 mb level or approximately 30,000’ aloft.  We are in a SW flow pattern aloft with a persistent upper level trough located along the U.S. West Coast.  The colors show the location and strength of the strongest winds at that level, the jet stream if you will.  A SW flow pattern is typically an active one for the Plains States.

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Now, notice the next map valid for Thursday morning and it is obvious that the trough to the west is rather slowly moving eastward and that the strongest part of the jet stream is moving toward Oklahoma.  Those stronger winds aloft are more conducive for severe storms to form and since our surface conditions will be changing very little in the days ahead, there will be plenty of low level moisture in place for that system to work with.  Since that system will eject in bits and pieces then there will be a chance of showers/storms on just about any given day throughout the forecast cycle, but it currently looks like conditions will be more favorable for severe weather here in E OK on Thursday.

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By the way, notice the 7 day QPF map which clearly shows the potential for locally heavy rainfall over the coming week as well which could result in some flooding issues by the time it is all said and done.

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As mentioned, our surface conditions will be changing very little from day to day with a persistent S to SE surface breeze keeping warm, humid air over us.  Dew point temperatures will be well into the 60s to near 70 so our nights will not be cooling much and that moisture also means our days will be on the sticky side.  Depending on the residual clouds/showers, daytime highs could be confined to the 70s such as today but more likely reaching the 80s each day as you can see on our forecast page.

And, as you can see on the 8-14 day outlook, that active pattern looks to persist well into the following week.  In other words, it could get interesting over the next week or two and strongly advise keeping a close eye on the weather as there may be some significant day to day variations in storm location/intensity/timing. 

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot