Warm Weekend, Fire Danger Concerns.

For the last few days, I have been focusing on our next potential storm system and how the long range model data has been flipping solutions from one day to the next. That creates lots of additional uncertainty regarding just what to put on our forecast as the models have ranged from snow to sunny and warm with solutions valid for the same day.  I have also mentioned that the storm of interest is currently well out in the Pacific Ocean, so thought I would try to illustrate that for you.

Notice the map below which shows the upper level winds at the 500mb level, or about 18,000’ above sea level.  The colors represent the location of the strongest winds, ie the jet stream at that level.  I have also marked the location of the area of interest that is currently projected to be our next weather maker with a large X.  Notice that it is out over the open N Pacific where we do not have very good data; most of what we have is inferred from satellite data.  It does not appear overly impressive out there and in fact is embedded within a number of strong systems rotating around the very strong flow over that part of the Pacific.

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The next map shows the projected location of that same system as forecast by the GFS and valid for 6 PM Tuesday evening of the coming week.  That is much faster but not as strong as previous solutions were suggesting over the last few days.  At any rate, that solution does bring a stronger cold front through on Tuesday morning with a chance of showers/thunder followed by colder conditions as you can see on our forecast page.  Notice also the strongest winds aloft are still located out over the Pacific Ocean indicating lots of energy and embedded storm systems out there which could have a significant impact on our weather in the following days.  Indeed, it appears that a number of weaker systems will move through with shifting winds but since these are Pacific systems and coming at us from the west, there is not a very good connection with the colder air to the north.  As a result, there will be some ups and downs for us going through the Classic weekend, but no major cool-downs are currently foreseen.

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Currently, we are expecting a big warm-up over the course of this weekend.  Today certainly started off very cold, but ended warmer than normal as you can see on the max/min temperature map.  Fair skies and a light southerly wind will keep it from being quite as cold tonight, and sunny skies together with a brisk southerly wind will push daytime highs into the 70s Saturday.  Fire danger will be the primary concern.

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A weak boundary will push through the state on Sunday shifting our winds around but not cooling things off much.  In fact, there may be some compressional heating just in advance of the boundary; enough to perhaps push daytime highs into the upper 70s before somewhat cooler arrives that evening/night.

Monday will still be much warmer than normal, the potential for a big cool-down on Tuesday, and then a series of weak systems through the following weekend but with little chance of rain.

Looking further down the road, the outlook through Classic weekend and into that following week continues to suggest a stable weather pattern along with temperatures averaging above normal.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot