Alan Crone Weather Blog: Tracking A System For Tonight

As a strong upper level system organizes over the desert southwest into the inter-mountain region, a strengthening area of low pressure will develop later today and will influence our area later this afternoon and evening. A dry-line feature will sweep across the state later tonight with a cold front moving from the northwest to southeast Tuesday morning to midday. 

These features will combine to produce a chance for showers and storms late tonight into pre-dawn Tuesday across part of eastern and northern OK. The surface instability will be lacking but with strong upper level dynamics a few thunderstorms with small hail and gusty winds will still be possible.   The higher threat of severe weather will remain east of the state and occur Tuesday across the Deep South.   

The pattern will remain quite active for the next few days.  The upper air flow will bring a major strong trough out of the four corners area into the central U.S. during the next 36 hours. A long wave trough will be nearing the area Wednesday and exiting Thursday.   A fast moving short-wave trough will dive down the flow Friday night into Saturday and another strong looking system moving out of the inter-mountain region into the central plains next Monday.  

As tonight’s system moves across the area, the limited moisture in place will be rapidly swept eastward with little moisture remaining across the region for the rest of the week.   A few showers will be possible Tuesday morning to midday as the colder air rushes from the northwest to southeast across the state but this chance will be less than 10%. 

Last week, it looked like a few flurries would be possible across far northern OK Tuesday morning. This weekend the data continued to trend warmer.  But the deeper cold air and better moisture will remain north of the state with blizzard conditions unfolding across part of the central plains into the upper Midwest.  

The temperatures today will be in the lower 60s with increasing southeast winds at 15 to 30 mph and increasing clouds.   The window for precipitation will be approximately 9pm tonight into 4am Tuesday morning.  Tuesday morning temperatures may start in the upper 40s, briefly hit around 50 by 10am to noon, and then falling into the lower 40s Tuesday afternoon along with gusty northwest winds at 15 to 25 mph. Wednesday may be the coldest day of the week with lows in the mid-20s and highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s.   

Thursday starts in the 20s and will end with highs near 50.    Friday starts in the mid and upper 20s and will end with highs in the lower 50s.    Another cold front will move across the area Friday night into Saturday with cooler air.   Lows Saturday morning in the 20s will be followed by highs in the mid to upper 40s.    

And another system will move across the state Super Bowl Sunday, but only a wind shift is likely.   Lows around 30 will be in the mid 50s.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV