Active Pattern for the Week to Come

Wintry weather has been infrequent this winter in Green Country so far, but temperatures over the past few days have been much below normal. The week ahead will bring warmer, but more inclement weather with several storm systems in the offing.

                The first fast-moving wave arrives Tuesday with light precipitation only.  Temperatures may be flirting with the freezing mark on Tuesday morning when that moisture returns. That could lead to a small window of light icing north and east of Tulsa.  However, the threat is limited and most of us should end up with temperatures well above freezing the rest of the day until the system slides east. A few snowflakes could also mix in to our northern counties tomorrow evening.  The worst of the wintry weather will reside in Kansas and Missouri in the day ahead.  The attached computer model simulation of Radar tomorrow evening shows the showers with a little ice and snow at the northern and eastern periphery of Green Country.

                After a brief break in the action on Wednesday with chilly, but dry weather, another strengthening system arrives. This one has a little more cold air and energy. This may result in more of a rain to snow mix across the area. At cloud level, it’ll be cold enough for snow formation. However, at the surface, temperatures will be at or above freezing. That would limit how many flakes reach the ground or how much could actually stick.  We are at the very western edge of winter storm that will lash the East Coast as it gains more moisture and energy.  At this time, we can’t rule out a dusting, but travel impacts will likely be minimal. Those warmer temperatures will be our saving grace.

                The below-normal streak of temperatures will finally end this weekend as a large enough gap in the storm systems allow a return to southerly winds and an influx of air that will allow for 50°+ highs. Another cold front sweeps through at the end of the weekend, but this time, it’s likely a dry passage. Beyond early next week, a warmer and wetter-than-normal pattern likely returns (as shown in the attached map). This would likely be a set-up for more rain than snow, but you never quite know this time of year.  Cold air is likely to stay more bottled up in the northern tier of the country for the end of the month.

                Be sure to follow me on Twitter: @GroganontheGO or like my page on Facebook for the latest on wintry weather chances!