Looking Good for the State Fair.

Notice the surface analysis map and in particular notice the stationary front across the northern Gulf of Mexico. I mention that boundary because it will have a rather significant impact on our weather through the weekend and into early next week. Although the boundary itself is well removed from our state, its position and the location of the surface high pressure ridge will combine to keep any deep, rich Gulf moisture from making it up our way anytime soon. The trajectory of any moisture from the Gulf is basically across far S TX, up the Rio Grande, into far W TX and then northward from there. Even though we will have a more S to SE surface wind in the days ahead, it is the flow across the northern Gulf that determines if, when, and how much moisture will return to our part of the state. This is perhaps better illustrated with a wind analysis map which is referred to as a streamline analysis. That is the second map and more clearly shows the flow across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Since this pattern will be slow to change, it will be awhile before we get the deeper moisture from the Gulf of Mexico up this way.

What does all that mean for us you ask? Well, it does not necessarily mean no chance of rain, just that any showers we may receive will be very light and the chances are going to be very small of even that. There is a pocket of energy aloft that will make a run at us by early Wednesday morning, but with very limited moisture to work with and since most of its energy will be further north, we anticipate it will fall apart about the time it makes it to the I-44 area. Thus, will carry a slight chance of a sprinkle or some light showers to start the day Wednesday, and that will be confined to the NW counties. After that, ridging aloft will become more dominant and with the lack of low level moisture then our rain chances will be in the slim to none category through the weekend and into the following week. Notice the 7 day QPF map which has us pretty much high and dry through that forecast cycle.

So, the forecast primarily amounts to a temperature forecast through the coming weekend and into next week. The more southerly flow later in the week will result in somewhat milder nights, but with lots of sunshine each day then our afternoons will be somewhat above normal. Bottom line is temperatures will be moderating somewhat with morning lows gradually climbing into the lower 60s by the weekend and our daytime highs in the low-mid 80s. For tonight and again tomorrow night though, the very dry air in place should result in morning lows in the 50s once again.

In other words, some very pleasant early fall weather will persist until about the middle of next week. That is when the longer range guidance continues to suggest a stronger system will be pushing across the state with better chances of showers/storms. But, that is beyond this forecast cycle and a lot can change between now and then.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot