Thursday Morning Update

Thursday, August 14th 2014, 4:42 am

By: Alan Crone

Good morning! We're experiencing a few locations this morning in the upper 50s but most locations near Tulsa to the south will stay in the lower 60s. Our forecast will continue to feature increasing temperatures and humidity values for the next 48 hours or so. A few showers or storms may be possible this weekend into early next week, but the chances will remain low and mainly across the northern third of the state.

The main pattern across the country remains with a trough across the Great Lakes Region, a mid-level ridge is across the southwest, and another trough developing near the Pacific Northwest. The Missouri Valley and the Ozarks have been benefiting from dry air wrapping down the back side of the Great Lakes Trough, but this pattern is slowly changing today. Our surface winds will back out of the southeast today in the 10 mph range and will be slowly increasing our local dew point temps across the region over the next few days. Consequently, humidly values will also be coming up this afternoon and subsequent afternoons through the weekend.

The models have been consistent with bringing a disturbance on the top side of the mid-level ridge this weekend into early next week, but the timing and strength of the wave is modeled differently by the GFS and EURO. Our pops will remain around 20% and mainly for the northern third of the state into southeastern Kansas for Saturday, and then Sunday into early next week. If we do make any changes, it would more than likely be to increase the pops to 30% for Monday.

The GFS has been bringing a southward moving cold front across the region Saturday night into Sunday morning, while EURO data has kept the boundary (basically) north.

We have kept our surface winds out of the south through the weekend and have discounted the positioning of the GFS for the boundary for Saturday night. I may end up punting on 3^rd and long if we see the front moving southward Saturday morning, but at this point, I don't think I'm changing the forecast.

The temperatures continue to climb in the data and in our forecast. But I don't' think we'll go up to the exact computer number suggestions for this weekend. We'll stay a degree or two below and see how the atmosphere responds. Our vegetation is extremely green and lush for August standards and this “may” be able to keep us a degree or two below these machine suggestions.

Our highs this afternoon will remain slightly below the seasonal average with most locations topping out near 91 with southeast winds and mostly sunny conditions.

The official Tulsa high yesterday was 88 recorded at 3:37pm. The normal average high is 94 and the low 72. Our daily records for today include a high of 110 from 1923 and a low of 53 from 1920.

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning Weather discussion and blog.

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You'll also hear me on numerous Tulsa metro radio stations including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and The Sports Buzz.

I'll be discussing the forecast on Radio Oklahoma News affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV