Wednesday Morning Update

Wednesday, June 18th 2014, 4:36 am
By: Alan Crone

The pattern should undergo a minor change during the next few days allowing a front, currently north of the state, to approach our area.  The result will be a chance for some scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon or evening, with a chance of a small complex of thunderstorms or a few scattered storms Friday morning to midday.  The threat of severe weather, while not zero, will remain low.  Temperatures today are expected in the upper 80s near 90 along with gusty south winds.  

The main item of interest is a strong upper level low currently over the intermountain region near Idaho this morning.  This low will eject into the northern high plains during the next 36 to 48 hours.  At the surface, a cold front currently positioned across portions of Colorado to Nebraska will move southward near the southern Kansas areas by Thursday afternoon and evening.  A dry line will be positioned across the far western sections of the high plains of Texas and the OK panhandle regions today and Wednesday.  A few storms may develop off the dry line but remain west of our areas. There is also a weak mid-level wave moving across west Texas this morning that will spread some clouds in our direction.   

As the low ejects into the plains, the front is expected to sag southward reaching southern Kansas Thursday evening.  Scattered storms will be likely across this area Thursday afternoon and evening and will probably be severe.   Late Thursday night into Friday morning, a small complex of thunderstorms may develop and slide southeast into northern OK.  The coverage of any complex is highly uncertain at this point and our current pop of 40% will remain for this event.  If the complex doesn't develop, we'll still have a shot of a few scattered showers or storms Friday, but the coverage is expected to remain low.  

Saturday the boundary should retreat north as a warm front away from the state or become diffuse with humid and warm conditions prevailing for the northeastern OK vicinity.  Sunday into Monday another wave will approach the region and shove the front southward with additional storm chances across the state.  The GFs had developed a surface low across the northwestern OK region and slowly advance eastward early next week with the boundary nearby.  This would result in high rain and storm chances including the threat of localized flooding issues.  Today the GFS keeps this boundary northward for the first part of the week before allowing higher chances late next week.  The EURO is now trending more southward faster with the early week boundary with increasing rain and storm chances.   Either model would give us a cool down for a few days next week, but with high humidity values across the region.  Due to the high uncertainty with the data, we'll keep only slight chances in the forecast for the early portion of next week, but these pops may increase in subsequent forecast cycles.  

Temperatures today will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s with gusty south winds at 15 to 30 mph.   

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 90 recorded at 4:29pm.

The normal daily average high is 88 and the low is 69.

Our daily records include a high of 104 from 1918.  The daily record low is 54 from 1912. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the weather on numerous Radio Oklahoma News network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.  

You'll also hear our forecast on Tulsa metro radio stations, including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and The buzz.   These stations are part of Clear Channel Communications. 

Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning weather discussion and blog.  

Have a super great and safe day!

Alan Crone