Wednesday Morning Update

Yet again today, we're tracking a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms for part of the area.  Unlike the last three days, the higher chances today will reside slightly southeast of Tulsa, across the eastern third of the state.  We'll continue with a mention of thunderstorms in the Tulsa metro, but the higher likelihood will reside east of highway 69 and south of I-40.   Temperatures this afternoon should rebound into the lower 80s with northeast winds around 10 mph.  There may be some breaks in the cloud structure with some sun.   This morning some patchy fog is possible in a few locations, but this is not anticipated to be significant.

The main upper level low that has been near our area for the past few days is finally moving southeast away from the area today.   This feature should be located near the ArkLaTex region later today and moving into the southern Louisiana vicinity Thursday.   A small disturbance located across the Dakotas will drop southward today and will become absorbed into the back side of the cyclonic flow.   This should bring the disturbance down the Missouri Valley and into the central part of the nation Thursday into Friday.  Other data doesn't appear as robust with this feature, but still brings additional showers and storms into the eastern third of the state Thursday into Friday as the main low to our south stalls.  This creates a possibility of scattered showers and storms Friday into part of the weekend across the eastern third of the state.  GFS is very robust compared to the other data regarding the precipitation forecast.  We'll not take all the bait, but will keep some pops for this period.   This probability will remain low for the Tulsa metro with slightly higher chances across the eastern third of the state. 

By Saturday, we're only expecting a few isolated storms during the afternoon and early evening hours Saturday.  By Sunday, we think most of the pops should be removed from the eastern third of the area. 

The pattern will resolve into windy and muggy conditions early next week with highs nearing the upper 80s and lower 90s.  There will be a few disturbances brushing the state, including a chance for storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, and then late next week.  Stay tuned!

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 73 recorded at 11:49am.  The normal daily average high is 82 and the low is 63.  Our daily records include a high of 94 from both 2012 and 1996.  The daily record low is 45 from 1947 and 1907.

We received 0.14 inches of rain Tuesday at Tulsa International Airport.  This brings our year to date total to 8.25 inches.  The normal precip expected to date is 15.75 which leaves a deficit of -7.50 inches.  

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma news network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.  

You'll also hear our forecast on a few Tulsa metro "Clear Channel Radio Stations" including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and The Buzz.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV