Friday Morning Update

Friday, May 2nd 2014, 4:34 am
By: Alan Crone

Welcome to Friday! 

I think today may be the best weather day of the week.  We'll expect these chilly morning temps in the 30s and 40s to quickly erode with highs moving into the lower and mid-70s this afternoon.   The winds should be somewhat light compared to the speeds we've experienced for most of this past week.  Speeds in the 10 mph range out the west will be likely with mostly sunny conditions. 

The pattern change is underway for the weekend!  A trough is clearing the area this morning and will result in a short term "northwest flow aloft" pattern for today and part of Sunday.   Light winds from the west today combined with subsidence behind the trough should result in sunny and mild conditions.   

The pattern begins a transition to a southwest flow by Sunday into early next week, and this will crank up the temps.   Morning lows will take a big jump and the afternoon highs will reach the mid 80 Saturday and the upper 80s into the lower 90s Sunday.    The data does support some veering into the low levels with south to southwest winds on occasion Saturday into Sunday helping to boost those afternoon readings.

Next week the pattern should support temps well above the seasonal average.   Morning lows in the mid-60s will be followed by highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s across the eastern third of the state where low level moisture will eventually make its way northward.  Our neighbors across the western third of OK, where drier air will reside, could make the mid or upper 90s early next week!    A dry line will fire up a few storms Tuesday and Wednesday, but most of these will stay west of our area, including along and west of I-35.  I think most of these will stay away from our immediate area until Thursday or Friday of next week. It comes as no surprise that GFS and EURO data diverge next week.  The GFS tends to keep the approaching long wave trough "open" while the EURO closes a low at the base.  Both sets would increase the chances for thunderstorms across eastern OK late next week, but the EURO would keep the active pattern into the weekend, and possibly into the following week. 

 While it's impossible to pin point any specific forecast for timing or probabilities at this juncture, some storms would be possible.  There is a potential for some capping issues for the middle of next week as well.  

In summary, much warmer air is expected by Sunday into the early part of next week with readings 15 degrees above normal.

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 68 recorded at 4:09pm.

The normal daily average high is 76 and the low is 55.

Our daily records include a high of 94 from 1943 and low of 32 from 1909.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates this morning through the morning.   Our forecast will be heard on several Clear Channel Radio stations in Tulsa including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and The Buzz.  

Thanks for reading the Friday Morning Weather discussion and blog. 

Alan Crone