Wednesday Morning Update

We're entering an active time period regarding our weather including rain chances today and thunderstorm chances tomorrow for part of the state.  Strong south winds are likely later today in the 15 to 30 mph range with some higher gusts possible.  Afternoon highs will stay in the mid or upper 50s for most locations.  Rainfall amounts are expected to remain light today across the northern half of the state in the range of .10 to .15 inches or less. Slightly higher amounts are possible across southern OK. 

The main upper level trough of interest is located to our west this morning and in response, strong south winds will return to the area.  Moisture is streaming northward across portions of Texas into southwestern OK this morning.  Rain will be approaching part of central OK by midday and into eastern OK by early afternoon to late afternoon.  The instability parameters will remain very low today across the northern third of the state but a few rumbles of thunder may be possible across the southern third region.   

Thursday the trough draws closer to the state and a dry line and cold front will develop by early morning to midday across the western portion of Oklahoma.  The dry line and cold front will sweep eastward Thursday afternoon with southwest surface winds in the 15 to 30 mph range.  If the southwest winds prevail, the available low level moisture will be shunted eastward into far eastern OK and western Arkansas.  A few strong to severe storms would be possible but the chance will remain near 30% for these areas along and east of highway 69-75.  If surface winds back from the southeast, a higher chance of storms will occur with severe storms possible.  Again, we anticipate the southwest surface winds.   

Locations across central and western OK will see strong west winds by afternoon, low humidity behind the dry line, and warm afternoon temps.  This may lead to a critically high fire danger set up across the western half of the state. 

The Friday time period remains a low confidence forecast.  NAM data continues to develop a secondary surface low along the Red River or possibly into north TX while stalling a surface boundary across portions of east central OK.  This would act to keep a threat of strong to severe storms across far southeastern OK and east-central OK Friday afternoon and evening southward across the ArkLaTex region.  The GFs is slightly more progressive and moves these features slightly more eastward out of the state.  We'll keep the Friday pop at 20% with highs in the 60s.  There will also be a chance for some showers and elevated thunder across far east-central OK Friday afternoon, but the chances will remain low for this forecast cycle.

 Saturday appears dry and cool with lows in the 30s and highs in the mid-60s.   

Another strong upper level system will move near the state Sunday and Monday.  Very windy conditions are expected once again Sunday with highs moving into the mid or upper 70s with south winds at 20 to 35 mph.  

The EURO brings a fast moving cold front across the state Sunday night into Monday morning with a small chance of showers or storms.  North winds will follow Monday into the early Tuesday morning time period before south winds rapidly back into the region Tuesday ahead of the next front.  If low level moisture can return ahead of this system, severe weather will be possible Wednesday or Thursday of next week.  But once again, the depth and quality of the moisture may continue to lack until we get at least 3 to 5 days of continues southerly flow advancing into the state.  The progressive nature of frontal passages tends to displace the moisture before this maturing can occur.  It's only a matter of time before the atmosphere will become primed for severe weather. 

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 51 recorded at 4:01pm.

The normal daily average high is 66 and the low is 43.

Our daily records include a high of 87 from 1918 and a low of 14 from 1955. 

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Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone

KOTV