Tuesday Morning Update

Good morning!  We're back to winter time temperatures for the next several days.  Highs today will be in the mid to upper 40s with Wednesday afternoon highs only in the mid to upper 30s The high Thursday may briefly reach back into the lower 50s, but the next 8 days will feature temperatures below the seasonal average. .  We're tracking several systems, including one this morning that will bring a few showers to far southern OK and a few thunderstorms to north TX.   

Last night a surface boundary moved southward across the state bringing north winds and cooler air.  Warm moist air is moving northward up and over the surface boundary and should result in a few areas of showers across southern and east-central OK during the next hour or so.  This activity will remain south of the Tulsa area.  Most of the precipitation will quickly move into north TX.  At this hour of posting, the radar is void of precipitation.  

A surface low across Texas will track eastward today and additional showers and thunderstorms will be likely across the Lone Star State today and tonight.  

To our north, a strong surface ridge of high pressure will begin building down through the high plains.  This will bring much colder air to the state today and more so Wednesday.  A weak area of forcing will create some snow showers moving out of the Rockies into the central plains today and tonight.  A few of these bands may approach southern Kansas or the Ok-Kansas state line area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning before they fall apart.   

Wednesday morning lows could start in the upper teens and finish only in the upper 30s near 40.  A few clouds will linger Wednesday morning with sunshine during the afternoon.  Winds will be variable in direction and light in speed.  

Thursday we have some controversy.  The latest run of the NAM brings northeast winds back across the area with another frontal boundary passage.   But other data suggests we should see a fast return of southerly surface winds in advance of the next upper level system to approach the area Friday.  I tend to favor this solution and will keep the south winds Thursday afternoon with an increase of low level moisture late Thursday night into Friday morning.  A few showers will break out Friday morning across northern OK and southeastern Kansas.  A few elevated thunderstorms may be possible across southeastern Kansas.  We currently have a 60% pop for the Friday period, but this may be slightly high for the expected coverage.   I may knock this pop down to a 40 or 50% shot.  

Saturday into early next week also features cold air and another storm system nearing the area.   

The past data has been offering rain chances Sunday with highs in the upper 30s or lower 40s.  The last run of the GFS now indicates the Sunday boundary may become stationary across northern OK for most of the day.  This could create a big range of temps with colder air north and not as cold air south.   We'll keep a decent chance of precip in the forecast for Sunday, but will more than likely pull the Monday pops off the forecast panel.   

After the early week system moves eastward, we continue to think colder and not warmer air will be the call for the first few days of next week.  March will come in "cold".  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 50 from 3"58pm.

The normal daily average high is 56 and the low is 34.

Our daily records include a high of 82 from 1917 and a low of 10 from 1965. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning hours. 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone

KOTV