Monday Morning Update

Monday, December 16th 2013, 4:42 am
By: Alan Crone

Good morning!  We're looking at great weather for the next few days before another arctic air mass attempts to move southward across the nation.  We continue have various model solutions regarding the exact placement of some very important weather features regarding the cold air and the weekend.  We'll continue to monitor each model run and make adjustments to the weekend forecast as confidence increases in the outcome.  But before this system approaches, we're in excellent shape. 

The next few days will seem like a mirage compared to the past 8 days.  Our morning lows will continue to climb a few degrees through the next several mornings.  Daytime highs will move above the normal average and could approach the mid to upper 60s by Wednesday and Thursday across portions of the NE OK with warmer air over the western half of the state.  We're looking at highs today in the lower 60s with mostly sunny conditions.  A few high clouds will be in the mix along with southwest winds around 10 mph.  A weak boundary slides across the state tomorrow with little impact other than a wind shift.  Temps may be a few degrees cooler tomorrow but we'll be close to the upper 50s for afternoon highs Tuesday.  

The initial cold front is expected to approach our area by Thursday night or Friday morning with a slight increase in rain and thunderstorm chances.  Most of the thunderstorms will be confined to the southeastern portion of the state late Thursday night into Friday morning but a few could occur across northeastern OK. The actual pop will remain around 20% Thursday night into Friday morning and midday.  

The arctic boundary should move southward Friday morning bringing the colder air back to the region into the weekend.  The upper air flow will remain from the southwest with a strong upper level system developing near the Baja and moving eastward through the weekend into early next week.  This combination of shallow arctic air paired with an active southwestern upper air flow will result in a chance of wintry precipitation.  The initial onset could begin as freezing rain sometime Saturday or Saturday night before the air mass becomes deep supporting snow across the northern portion of the state Sunday morning.  Again, we have numerous inconsistencies in the data and the weekend forecast may undergo dramatic changes from day to day in the model data.  The last run of the GFS doesn't bring precip into the area until late Saturday night while the EURO starts this process Saturday afternoon.  GFS keeps the upper low relatively closed while the EURO opens the wave by Sunday.  We'll attempt to avoid wild swings but the forecast is expected to undergo some changes as we draw near the weekend.  We encourage you to remain aware of the forecast and the weather this weekend into early next week regarding the potential for wintry weather to develop.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 59 recorded at 4:14pm.

The normal daily average high is 49 and the low is 29.

The daily record high is 77 from 1908 and the low is 3 from 1989.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.  

Thanks for reading the Monday Morning Weather Discussion and blog.

Have a super great day. 

Alan Crone