Wednesday Morning Update

What more can we say about the last two days weather across northern OK?  These past few days have been wonderful by any measure.  Things are going to change over the next few days and you will be noticing the difference compared to earlier this week.   

The first change will be increasing wind speeds today and more so Thursday and Friday.  South to southeast winds around 15 to 25 mph will be likely Thursday and Friday in advance of another storm system approaching the four corners area.  These strong winds will bring low level moisture from the Gulf back near the region by the end of the week.   

The second difference will be the temperatures.  Our morning lows and daytime highs will climb a few degrees with afternoon temps topping out today around 80 and the lower 80s for the rest of the week.  Morning lows will move into the mid 50s tomorrow morning and near the lower 60s Friday into Saturday.   

The first system moving across the intermountain west will rapidly lift northeast away from our area Friday night into Saturday morning.  There could a few showers or storms across southern Kansas and northern OK late Friday evening into pre-dawn Saturday.  We'll keep this probability in the forecast at a 10% chance.  Friday night football should be pleasant and dry.   

The higher likelihood for thunderstorms will arrive Saturday afternoon and evening into the early Sunday morning hours as a small disturbance rotates around the base of the main upper level trough.  Some model data indicates increasing convective and potential energy pooling across south-central and southern OK Saturday afternoon and evening.  As a weak boundary approaches the region, thunderstorms will attempt to form and a few of these could be strong to severe.   

The outcome of the Sunday to Tuesday time period is highly uncertain.  But the trend of keeping a chance of showers and storms in the forecast will remain.  The EURO is aggressive bringing the front through the area Sunday morning and moving to the Red River Valley.  This would take most of the activity into southern Ok and north TX Sunday into Monday before the front lifts northward during the day Monday before sliding southward Tuesday.  

The GFS stalls the boundary across the northern part of the state Sunday before lifting northward for a few hours.  This boundary eventually crosses the state Tuesday morning according to the GFS.  

There's no clear cut winter at this point.  The EURO has a better track record, but with this pattern, the GFS may be closer to correct.   

Regardless of the eventual outcome, EURO and GFS data both support a very active weather pattern from this weekend into the early portion of next week.  As a reminder, our second severe weather season occurs in early to mid-fall and we may be in the running for some severe weather over the next 7 to 10 days.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 75 recorded at 3:31pm.

The normal daily average high is75  and the low is 53.

Our daily records include a high of 97 from 1963 and a low of 28 from 2000.  

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast this morning on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state.  

Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

Alan Crone

KOTV

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV

PS.
OU/ Texas Game:

There will be a chance for showers and storms in North TX this weekend.  We'll be attempting to narrow down the timing of the system during the next 36 hours.