Thursday Morning Update

Good morning. Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the lower 90s to mid-90s before a cold front will arrive bringing a change to northern Oklahoma.  This front may also produce a few showers and thunderstorms, but the coverage will be very low.  South winds this morning will give way to northeast winds this afternoon around 10 miles per hour.  The boundary will slide southward and will be nearing the Red River Valley by early Friday morning.  Mild temperatures will reside across northern and eastern Oklahoma Friday through part of the weekend.  Another system may arrive early next week keeping temperatures at or slightly below the seasonal average.   

 The mid-level ridge of high pressure, which has been the dominant feature for the past two weeks, has now moved south- east of our immediate area and a surface cold front will enter the area this afternoon.  This front is expected to knock our temperatures at or below the seasonal average for Friday afternoon.  Temperatures tomorrow morning should start in the mid to upper 60s for many locations.  By Saturday morning a few of the valleys in northeastern Oklahoma may experience some upper 50s for a brief time.  Saturday's weather looks good with sunshine and a few clouds along with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.  Sunday may be slightly warmer after a cool morning, with daytime highs approaching 90.   

 The early portion of next week remains somewhat uncertain at this hour.  Medium to long range data has been indicating another system approaching northern Oklahoma Monday into Tuesday.  This would bring another cold front into the area keeping temperatures slightly below the seasonal average and also bringing a chance of precipitation to portions of the state.  Some data has also hinted at a tropical system developing in the south western portion of the Gulf of Mexico during the next 36 to 48 hours.   Any tropical system early next week would remain well south of our area.  But some data suggest the system could indirectly impact part of our forecast by disrupting the moisture flow into the state or even increasing the moisture flow into the state!  This possible system will remain a wild card in our extended forecast.  We will of course, continue to keep you posted for early next week.  The GFS/EURO this morning seem to back off any frontal passage early next week with the EURO not bringing a boundary into the state until late next week.  The bottom line:  we'll keep 20% pops on the map for early next week, but nothing higher.  

 The official high in Tulsa yesterday was96 recorded at 2:21pm.   The daily normal average high is 85 and the low is 64. 

 Daily Records include a high of 102 from 1930 and a low of 48 from both 1959 and 1940.   

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.  You may also hear me on numerous radio stations across the state including Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates.  

 Thank you for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.  I greatly appreciate you stopping by the web page this morning!  If you are new to the blog, I try to have this discussion updated: between 4 a.m. and 5:00 a.m. Weekday mornings.  You are always welcome to leave comments at the bottom, or post comments on Twitter or Facebook. 

 Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV

 PS.  A handful of high school football games will be played tonight.  The chance of showers and storms during these games will remain low, but not zero.  Friday night games across northern Oklahoma should be rain free while some of our neighbors in southern Oklahoma good experience a brief shower or storm.

 Saturday's football weather, including the OU / Tulsa game in Norman, looks good.  The Saturday game with OSU in Stillwater also appears pleasant.  I will have more specifics on these game day forecast tomorrow.