Wednesday Morning Update

Good Morning friends.  The weak boundary is located slightly north of the state line this morning and is expected to slowly sag southward during the next few hours.  A few very small showers and thundershowers are depicted on the radar across extreme se Kansas and SW Missouri this morning but will have a hard time moving southward into the northeast portion of the state.  Our better chance will occur later this afternoon and across portions of northern OK as a few storms will attempt to develop near or slightly behind the front.  While low level moisture is more than sufficient for storms, the expected difference between temp and dew point temps this afternoon may create an environment conducive for 70 mph wind gusts from thunderstorms along with some hail. Humidity values will be in the 35 to 40% range later today with actual surface temps around 100 to 103.  This type of near storm environment helps to enhance downdraft potential and thus the possibility for severe thunderstorm downbursts of wind.  Please keep in mind the chance for storms will still remain only near a 30% probability but any storm could produce the gusty to severe winds.   

As mentioned above, the surface temps directly ahead of the surface boundary will be nearing 100 to 103 along with southwest surface winds around 10 to 15 mph.  Locations across extreme northern OK and southern Kansas will top out in the upper 90s. Temp heat index values will be from 105 to 112 today and our friends at the National Weather Service will continue excessive heat warnings for the Tulsa county area and heat advisories for the surrounding areas through the evening.  

Temperatures behind the front will remain above the seasonal average with lows in the lower to mid-70s and highs in the mid-90s both Thursday and Friday.  Temps may drop a few degrees for the weekend remaining near the normal averages.  

As long as the boundary remains intact, we'll keep a slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast.  This means our chances could remain through at least Friday, and possibly even Saturday morning before the front becomes totally diffuse or unrecognizable. The coverage, if storms form at all, would be small. This morning the data suggest the boundary may be gone by late Thursday night or Friday morning.  We'll more than likely take the probabilities out of the forecast for the Friday and Saturday time period.  

The mid-level ridge mostly responsible for the increasing temp profile is expected to become elongated (change its shape) and re-establish the center over Southern Iowa and northern Missouri by early next week.  This weekend the temps may remain in the lower to mid-90s for highs and lows in the 70s, but by the middle to end of next week, the pattern would support another run at triple digit readings across the northern OK vicinity.  

This morning the National Hurricane Center continues to track Tropical storm Chantal.  This storm will approach the Southeast Florida coastal region and possibly the east Coast by Friday and this weekend.   You'll find the official NHC forecast for the tropical storm on my Fan page.   

The high in Tulsa yesterday was 100.

The highest heat index value (in Tulsa) was 106.

The normal daily average high is 93 and the low is 73.

Our daily records include a high of 107 from 2011 and a low of 59 from 1961. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.  https://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6

Twitter@alancrone 

I'll also be discussing the state-wide and regional weather forecasts on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour.  

Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog. 

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone

KOTV