Excessive Heat Warnings Thursday, but Relief is in Sight.

As I write this, the heat index has climbed to just over the triple digit mark largely because the dew point temperature has stayed in the low 70s this afternoon. Prior to today, the dew point temperature has mixed out into the 60s during the afternoon hours which has kept the heat index from becoming too uncomfortable. Unfortunately, Thursday will see air temperatures near triple digits and the dew point will still be near 70 and that combination will likely result in heat index values in excess of 105 which is getting into dangerous territory. By the way, we have yet to ‘officially' reach triple digits this year so Thursday looks to be the hottest day so far. Last year at this time there had already been several triple digit days.

Since the Thursday air temperature will be in triple digit territory and the heat index will be well into triple digit territory, excessive heat warnings have been issued which will continue through Friday. Fortunately, a change in the weather pattern will also occur on Friday bringing an end to the heat and even dropping temperatures below normal for the first week of July.

More about that in a moment, but there are some other issues to consider for the next couple of days. In addition to the heat on Thursday, we will have very light southerly winds which could also add up to air quality issues. An Ozone Alert has not been announced for Thursday, but the lighter winds together with the heat and humidity will make for a more oppressive day without those stronger southerly breezes to provide at least some ventilation.

A wind shift will arrive early Friday with northerly winds expected for most, if not all of the day. However, the cooler air will take awhile to filter in and we expect to be in the mid 90s with heat index values still into triple digits. Northerly winds and closer to 90 is expected for Saturday and daytime highs in the 80s with overnight lows dropping into the 60s should be the general rule starting Sunday and extending into the following week. Notice the first map on the right which is the estimated temperature departure for the 8-14 day period of Jul 4-10. It has a strong signal showing below normal temperatures for that time period and since we will be below normal going into those dates, the first 10 days of July are looking rather promising with below normal temperatures as a general rule.

Unfortunately, this change in the pattern does not appear to be accompanied by much in the way of rainfall. There will be a slight chance of showers/storms Thursday night into the day Friday as the front moves through and another chance along about Sunday, but the chances are just that-slight. Notice the QPF map on the right which clearly shows we are still pretty much high and dry. However, there are hints that the middle of next week may see a more unsettled pattern develop. Just hints at this time, so we will see how that pans out.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot