Tuesday Morning Update

First up:  Earthquakes!

We've had a mini-swarm of earthquakes this morning across the state.  The first was at 1:45am and the last was at 2:16am.  The one most folks "felt" was a 4.3 magnitude tremor at 1:56AM recorded 6 miles east of Luther.  

Now on to the weather! 

This stationary front southeast of Tulsa is playing havoc with our temperature forecast.  The front stayed southeast of Tulsa for most of yesterday and kept the temps in the upper 50s and lower 60s near and north of Tulsa until late in the afternoon when temps skyrocketed into the lower 70s!  Areas south and east of the metro were placed in a tornado watch for the afternoon and evening hours and a few severe storms did form across north TX and southeastern OK.   

Today we're expecting more of the same problems with our temp forecast, but the overall set up for showers and storms remains vague. Some short term Hi Res data suggest a few showers may develop this morning across the cool side of the boundary into northern Ok and southern Kansas.  These would not be significant.  Later this afternoon or evening, a few additional strong to severe storms would be possible across the western portion of the state.   But the pattern Wednesday would support the potential for a regional severe weather outbreak including all modes of severe weather.  The SPC has already placed a large portion of the area under a moderate risk of severe weather for Wednesday afternoon and evening.  I must state, there are some important differences in the NAM vs. the GFS regarding the positioning of the retreating quasi-warm frontal sector.  This could have an impact on the number and severity of thunderstorms.  Let's see how the next few runs of the data shake out.  More on this later.  

The main upper air pattern will support a major upper level trough approaching the area Wednesday but will not clear the area until Thursday afternoon.  This would support thunderstorm activity continuing Wednesday night and overnight into Thursday morning before ending from the west to east by Thursday afternoon.  The Nam is fast with the frontal boundary and would clear the area of thunderstorms after the early Thursday morning hours.  The GFS and to some extend the EURO seem to be slightly slower and would keep the thunderstorm threat going through midday to late midday near Tulsa and not clearing eastern OK until Thursday afternoon.  The NAM would mean temps starting Thursday morning in the 50s and falling into the lower 40s by afternoon with a stout northwest wind.  The EURO would also support a big temp drop, while the GFS is not quite as bullish.  I'm leaning toward the big temp drop-off supported by the NAM-EURO at this point, and will "invert" the temps on the 7 day planner.  This means Thursday morning will be the "warmer" part of the day with afternoon readings falling into the 40s.  

Friday and Saturday appear mild but cool.  There will be a chance of a light freeze near and west of Tulsa Friday morning.   

Sunday a weak upper level wave may approach the area and could produce a few showers or rumbles of thunder, but at this time, the probability appears very low.  We'll keep this out of the forecast for this time period.   

Monday the EURO does support a decent shot of showers or storms followed by another frontal boundary intrusion Tuesday.   

The high in Tulsa yesterday was 74 recorded at 3:13pm.

The normal daily average high is 72 and the low is 49.

Daily records include a high of 93 recorded on this date in 1982 and a low of 31 recorded in 1953.

You'll find me on facebook and twitter.  https://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6

Twitter  @alancrone

I'll be discussing the weather today with Dan Potter and the KRMG Morning News through the early morning hours.

You'll also hear my statewide and regional weather forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state. 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

Alan Crone

KOTV