Monday Morning Update

Welcome back to the colder air!

As we're moving into our new broadcast facility in the Brady District, I'll skip some of the details and just hit the highlights this morning.

A cold front moved across the region late yesterday afternoon and we're expecting highs back into the lower 40s today.  North winds will be breezy in the 10 to 20 mph range this morning and then diminishing as the afternoon progresses.  A few morning clouds may be possible but we expect another sunny day across the area.  

The cold air will not last long.  The upper air flow will quickly allow the colder air to slide eastward and moderate as southerly surface winds return tomorrow into Wednesday.  Many times the data will underestimate the magnitude of a shallow arctic air mass, but this time the models appear to have a good handle.  We should see highs tomorrow in the upper 40s and lower 50s with some mid-60s by Wednesday.   

The next system is slated to arrive across the area Thursday afternoon or evening but once again the low level moisture is expected to be of the "thin" variety.  We could have a few showers Thursday afternoon or evening as the system moves rapidly cross the state, but at this point, we'll only carry a 10% probability for the far northeastern portions of the area.  

The air mass behind the Thursday system should also be cold with morning lows Friday in the mid-20s and highs around 40.  We'll expect a near normal Saturday and highs in the upper 50s for Sunday. 

The extended data continues to offer some controversy, which is normal for this time period.  The GFS attempts to rapidly bring a wet system across the state Monday night into Tuesday, while the EURO is a day or so late with very little precip.   Even though the upper air flow has been extremely fast, I'm trending toward the slower and drier EURO at this point.   

The official high yesterday in Tulsa was 63 recorded at 3:57pm.  Our daily normal high is 48 and the low is 27.  Daily records include a high of 75 from 1957 and the low of -1 from 1918. 

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Thanks for reading the Monday Morning Weather Discussion.

Have a super great day.

Alan Crone

KOTV