A Little Warmer Next Few Days.


Tuesday, November 13th 2012, 4:00 pm
By: News On 6


Notice the two maps on the right which are valid for the period Nov 20-26. The first one is an estimation of the average temperature during that period and the second one an estimation of the average precipitation. It is very apparent that, barring any surprises, we will be mild and for the most part dry during that period. We are into the time of year in which there can be some rather sudden and dramatic changes in our weather such as occurred this past Sunday; but at least for now, no additional such weather events are anticipated anytime soon.

In fact, after the big cool down on Sunday the rest of this week will see a gradual moderation with daytime highs back into the 60s. We will have lots of sunshine each day with only some occasional high level cirrus clouds and obviously no mention of rain. In contrast to last week, our winds will be on the light side with wind speeds generally of 10 mph or so for the next few days and from a southerly direction. At night, light winds and generally fair skies together with the dry air that is in place will keep our nights on the chilly side with lows expected to be near freezing again tonight and generally in the 30s for the next several nights.

By the time the weekend gets here, a little stronger southerly wind is expected which should moderate temperatures even more, particularly at night. We will also be seeing more cloud cover gradually spreading back over the state, but it still looks like we will be dry. Our next chance of rain looks to be on Monday of next week, but that is by no means certain. The longer range products are at odds regarding our rain chances with the GFS having a rather wet solution and the ECMWF a much drier solution. Since the GFS typically over amplifies systems at those longer time ranges, and since the low level moisture will likely be very limited, will keep only a slight chance of a shower/storm by then and hope that I am wrong. As indicated above, the rest of next week looks to be mild and dry and the general zonal pattern aloft will provide few opportunities for any significant precipitation any time soon.

As always, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot