After another very warm, windy, dry day; that will all be changing over the next 24 hours. A strong cold front will be pushing into the state later tonight and on through the state during the day Sunday. Strong southerly winds ahead of the front will keep temperatures very mild and we will start the day in the 60s, much as we did today. However, as the front moves on to the SE our winds will shift to the N and will be quickly be followed by much cooler conditions. In fact, most of us will be in the 40s by days end and those gusty northerly winds will make it feel much cooler.
Not only that, but we will also have some widespread showers/storms along and ahead of this front which will bring the first widespread, general rains in quite some time. However, this will not be a drought breaker by any stretch as it is simply moving through too fast. Look for showers/storms to start the day in the western counties which will quickly move on eastward during the morning and early afternoon hours. By evening, all the rain should have moved on eastward out of the state and our skies will be clearing from W-E. Rainfall totals will generally be on the order of .5-1" with the heavier amounts most likely occurring in the more E counties. Notice the QPF map on the right which has a pretty good handle on things. Some storms may also become severe with a wind/hail threat primarily; and that is most likely for the extreme E and SE counties during the afternoon hours.
The clearing skies late in the day will set the stage for a clear, cold start to Monday morning when most of us will be in the 20s. Since many organizations are actually celebrating Veteran's Day on Monday, the weather will actually be pretty nice, although certainly on the cool side. After that cold start, lots of sunshine during the day and a light SW wind component should get our afternoon temperatures back into the lower 50s which is about 10 degrees below normal. But, the light winds and sunshine will still make for a pleasant day.
After that, southerly winds will be generally on the light side, at least compared to the last few days, for the rest of the coming week. That means a gradual moderation in temperature with near normal values expected by week's end. We will also be dry all week with only some occasional high level clouds.
Our next chance of rain now appears to be during the coming weekend, but that is by no means certain. The longer range guidance is still not in agreement on the strength or the timing of the next storm system coming our way by then; so will just maintain a slight chance until we see better consistency.
In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.