Monday Morning Update

Expect mostly cloudy, windy, and warm conditions today with a chance of thunderstorms.  A few storms may be strong to severe.  Highs will be in the lower 80s.  Colder air will move across the area by the end of the week.

We may need to double check the calendar.  Is this fall?  The temperatures yesterday topped out in the mid-80s and more 80 degree weather is likely until a strong cold front approaches the area Thursday.  This morning a mid-level disturbance to our west will bring a chance of showers and storms to the area today and tonight before quickly exiting the state later this evening.  The moisture content has increased across Eastern OK and there will be a chance for strong to severe storms with this system.  Storm parameters may produce damaging winds or some marginally severe hail.  The higher moisture content could also lead to some isolated storms producing heavy rainfall. The coverage of thunderstorm activity is expected to remain near 50% for the area but could increase later this evening across the eastern part of the state.  A few isolated showers or storms may form this morning but as of this post (5AM) the local area is void of precipitation.   

The southerly flow will remain until Thursday when the data supports a cold front moving across the area during the early afternoon bringing colder air and north winds.  GFS and EURO data differ on the amount of shower and storm potential along the boundary Thursday, but both models indicate the possibility of some post frontal precipitation Friday with clouds and much colder air.  The temps will be dropping into the 60s Thursday evening and possibly in the upper 40s for Friday afternoon highs along with some rain during the first part of the day.  Temps Saturday could start in the upper 30s or lower 40s and finish in the lower to mid-50s along with a brisk north wind and mostly sunny conditions.   Sunday appears cool but dry with mostly sunny sky and highs in the mid or upper 50s.

The normal average high today is 71 the low of 49.  Today's daily records include 88 from 1963, 1939, and 1921.  The daily record low is 31 recorded in 1911.

Precipitation for the year is now at 26.79 inches compared to a normal average for the year  to date at 34.40.  This creates a deficit of -7.64 inches.  

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Alan Crone