Wednesday Morning Update

Wednesday, October 3rd 2012, 5:59 am
By: Alan Crone

A strong cold front will enter the region Thursday bringing the first "true" taste of fall air to the region Friday into Saturday.  Some light precipitation is possible Friday into Saturday morning behind the boundary, and a few isolated storms may be possible Thursday afternoon near or directly behind the front as it moves across Eastern OK. 

Temperatures today should easily move back into the lower or even mid-80s along with south winds in the 10 to 20 mph range as the next storm system moves across the northern high plains.  This system, currently across the SW areas of Canada, will move eastward tonight and tomorrow.  A cold front at the surface will rapidly slide across the intermountain region of the west bringing a significant cold air mass to these areas.  The boundary will enter northwestern OK Thursday morning and will approach the Northeastern part of the state by mid afternoon.  EURO and GFS data support keeping the boundary northwest of Tulsa until 3pm Thursday, but experience tells us this front will more than likely arrive earlier during the day.  The shallow nature of the air mass may also temporarily stall  across far southeastern OK and northeast Texas near and east of the Pushmataha-McCurtain-Leflore county area southward to near Eastern Fannin-Western Lamar county in NE Texas.  This portion of the boundary will effectively become stationary until another shove of cooler air will arrive Friday evening pushing the air mass southward across North Texas.   

Temperatures Thursday afternoon will be tricky.  Locations near and west of I-35 could reach the highs of the day between 11AM and NOON with temps falling into the upper 60s by 5pm.  Locations near and southeast of Tulsa may hit the lower 80s by 1pm to 4pm with falling temps into the Thursday evening hours. Far Southeastern OK should have no problems hitting the mid-80s Thursday afternoon. The air mass ahead of the boundary will more than likely be capped.  This means our storm chances will more then likely be confined to areas directly on or slightly behind the boundary.  The updrafts will quickly undercut the storms and no significant severe storms would be expected. 

Friday morning should feature temps in the mid-50s, but gusty north winds and the potential for some overrunning precipitation could allow the temps to remain steady or slowly falling throughout the day.  There will be a chance that Friday morning's readings could end up being the highs of the day, with readings falling into the lower 50s by Friday afternoon.  

The precipitation chances are not exceptionally high Friday, but some precipitation seems likely at times, for some locations.  Friday night football could feature damp and very cool conditions with games played in the upper 40s or lower 50s along with north winds and light rain or sprinkles.  

Saturday morning, some rain seems likely near the region as the front at 5000 ft. begins to move southward across central OK into North Texas as another upper level wave draws near the southern plains.  This would result in occasional rain, north winds, clouds, and highs in the lower 50s resembling more of a " late fall" day than an early fall day in October. 

Sunday the rain should be over, but the cool air will remain.  If the clouds clear out on Sunday morning before dawn, temps will drop into the upper 30s, with some patchy frost a possibility along the Ok-Kansas state line.  Daytime highs would move back into the lower 60s before a modest warm up begins early next week. The pattern for next week may become very active with a front approaching Wednesday or Thursday with rain and storm chances lingering into next weekend.  

If you are a frequent reader of the morning blog, you already know "fall and winter" are my favorite times of the year for a number of reasons, including the weather.  I, for one, will be anxiously awaiting the arrival of the cooler air.