Is Old Man Winter Skipping Oklahoma?

As Northeast Oklahoma continues its quiet march through Winter and with just a month and a half left, many are wondering if old man Winter will actually pay us a visit.

It may be the beginning of February but many folks in Oklahoma have a serious case of Spring fever.

Who doesn't love lower heating costs and more comfortable times outdoors?

On Groundhog Day, February 2, 2012 that rodent up in Pennsylvania was telling us "six more weeks of Winter."

We'd rather not rely on a Groundhog alone for our forecasts.

There are several factors that have kept us mild and also provide us clues for the rest of the winter.

As predicted La Niña, which is abnormally cool ocean waters in the Eastern Pacific, has kept us milder and that pattern won't be changing through March.

Another feature we look at is the position of the jet stream. It has been displaced much further north than usual since the beginning of the winter, keeping colder air bottled up in the Arctic, but now long-range trends show it moving further south, which would in theory give cold air a shot at diving our direction.

This is called the Arctic Oscillation and is one sign that the worst of winter may still be to come.

Forecast models are still keeping winter storms out of the picture, but that could change as we go further into February.

The Climate Prediction Center indicates a warmer than normal month ahead, but wetter conditions than we've seen since the start of year. That means slightly better snow chances.

The bottom line, don't count Winter out just yet.

We typically see our worst snowstorms from now through mid-March. This year could be no different.

So far this Winter, Tulsa has officially received only half an inch of snow. The last time Tulsa saw a Winter with this little snowfall was in 1976.

History also shows that there's little correlation between a mild winter and a hot summer.  All you have to do is remember 2011 for proof of that.