Windy and Warmer Sunday.

So far, this has been one of the coldest days of the season, but Sunday promises to be dramatically different. In fact, temperatures should start moderating during the overnight hours as our winds shift to a more S and SE direction and increase to 10-20 mph by morning. That will bring moderating temperatures and also an increase in the low, stratus cloud deck by Sunday morning. Bottom line is that temperatures are expected to drop off quickly early tonight when the winds are light and the skies are fair but will actually be warmer by morning. We should drop to at or below the freezing mark by around midnight, then warming to the lower 40s by sunrise.

Sunday will then see gusty S to SW winds of 20-30 mph or more in advance of a cool front which will create an enhanced fire danger situation. Those winds will be shifting to the NW after the front moves through, but the air is not particularly cool behind this system. Also, the more SW winds just ahead of the front will pool the deeper, better moisture further east of us so that there is less than a 20% chance of showers for late Sunday or Sunday night. As the moisture gets swept eastward, we should also see more afternoon sunshine and temperatures soaring into the 50s and 60s for Sunday afternoon.

Monday will be very pleasant with mostly sunny skies and light winds which will be generally from a westerly component during the morning and more from the SE by days end. That is why you will sometimes see L & V on the wind forecast which is Light & Variable. Although we will be behind a cool front, temperatures on Monday will still be above normal.

A potentially wetter system may be affecting us later Tuesday and Wednesday. From the QPF map on the right which is valid through Thursday, it is obvious that the more generous rains will be further south of us, particularly into Texas. In fact, right now it appears that most of the rain will likely be along and south of I-40 with the rain chances rapidly diminishing further north. That is subject to change though as the ultimate track of the upper level storm system has shown considerable variation from run to run and model to model.

That may also impact the latter part of the coming week, although current indications suggest we should be dry along with relatively mild temperatures going into the coming weekend.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot