A pre-frontal trough is sliding across the region this morning allowing north winds to develop across the northern part of the state. A cold front will arrive around 2pm to 3pm today bringing gusty north winds along with cooler air for later tonight and Friday.
The afternoon highs today are still expected to move into the upper 80s near Tulsa with some lower 90s likely across the southern third of the state. No precipitation is expected across northern OK due to the lack of significant low and mid level moisture. A few showers or storms will be possible across north central Texas late tonight or early Friday morning.
The weekend appears pleasant with morning lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s as the daytime highs move into the upper 70s. The return flow of surface wind from the south will commence Sunday into early next week as the next major system moves closer to the nation.
A major pattern change will occur next week. The current trough in the east and ridge in the west will be replaced with a trough in the west and a ridge in the east. This is a typical pattern for early October and this pattern can bring very active weather to the region. The main issue for the early part of next week will be moisture return: can significant low level moisture return early next week before the first portion of the trough moves across the plains?
The main system will be moving across the nation late next week with the potential for storms across the central and southern plains. The operational models will change on a daily basis regarding timing and positioning of any storms, but the overall pattern recognition would support an active period. This mornings output suggest next Friday and Saturday would feature storms. Again, this output will change many times between now and then, but the pattern does support a chance of showers or storms sometime next week. We'll keep you posted.
Today's forecasted highs: