Many thanks to Michael Grogan for filling in for me on Saturday. Big family reunion on the wife's side of the family at our house, so it has been a busy but enjoyable couple of days for us. And the weather could not have been better for the middle of August, particularly considering how the month started.
The rains and cooler temperatures over the past week has certainly provided some welcome relief. In fact, notice the statewide rainfall over the past week which is shown on the map to the right courtesy of the OK Mesonet.
Notice some locations received very generous amounts of rain, particularly on this side of the state whereas our more western neighbors are still too dry. In other words, the rainfall did little more than settle the dust or provide some short term relief but really did not put a dent in the drought for the more western counties.
Unfortunately, the upper level ridge which was so dominant and kept us so hot and dry up until this past week, is showing signs of re-asserting itself. For today though, we will still have a light N to NE surface wind which despite the mostly sunny skies should keep temperatures below normal. That should translate into afternoon temperatures around the 90 degree mark. With our nights getting longer and our days getting shorter, the fair skies and light winds for tonight should again result in overnight temperatures in the upper 60s which is mighty pleasant for this time of year.
After that, things start heating up with daytime temperatures back above normal for the rest of the coming week. At present, it appears that the rain footprint from the recent rains will mitigate the amount of heating to a certain extent and should keep us below triple digits. However, the price for that will be higher humidity levels so the heat index will most likely be at or above triple digits. Our nights will also be getting warmer due to a return to southerly surface winds and the higher dew point temperatures which should translate into overnight lows in the low-mid 70s.
As mentioned, the ridge aloft looks to be getting stronger once again, but there will be some important differences from what it was like to start the month. The ridge axis looks to be a little further west and the strength of the ridge will be somewhat weaker. Right now, that should be just enough of a difference to keep us under a weak NW flow pattern aloft which will likely produce nightly showers and storms up in Kansas, some of which may clip our more northern or NE counties during the late night or morning hours beginning Tue morning and for at least several more mornings after that.
So, the chances of rain during the coming week will be non-zero, particularly for the more N and NE sections of the state. Otherwise, it will be hot and humid with temperatures running above normal at least heading into the coming weekend.
So, stay cool, stay tuned, and check back for updates.