We're moving back into the mid and upper 90s for the next several days as the mid level ridge axis moves northward into the state. The northern position of the ridge will be located across northern OK into extreme SE Kansas and SW Missouri. This ridge will slide southward early next week as a major pattern change is expected to occur across the nation.
The short term issues remain centered on a complex of thunderstorm activity that will be located across northern OK this morning. Another system may form later in Nebraska and Northern Kansas may southeast later today brushing extreme Northeastern OK or Southeastern Kansas. There's another slight chance of storms forming to our west this afternoon and evening before moving eastward by early Friday morning. This system is expected to fall apart just before reaching Tulsa, but I'll keep a slight chance of storms in the forecast for early Friday morning near and north of Tulsa. The models have been horrible lately with anything other than a very short term time period. The last two runs of the NAM brought this MCS closer to NE OK while the GFS keeps the system a hair northward. Only time will tell, but I'm inclined to keep a mention of this probability in the forecast today.
The weekend will feature gust south winds as the pressure gradient cranks up across the central plains. South winds from 15 to 30 mph will be common as temperatures move into the mid and upper 90s across northeastern OK with triple digit weather likely across central and western OK. The fire danger will be extremely high across western OK due to the wind and drought conditions.
By early next week all long range models have been hinting at a series troughs moving into the nation as the mid level ridge slides southward. We expect a few storms Monday and Tuesday but higher chances will occur Wednesday and Thursday with afternoon highs possibly in the mid 80s.
The GFS ensembles also hint at a tropical like system developing into the Gulf next week but the mid level thermal ridge may slide northward over OK bringing more hot air around Monday June 22, while keeping the tropical system to the southeast of the state.