A few storms may survive across the northern OK area this morning. Dry air in the mid levels of the atmosphere will promote strong downdraft potential that may result in strong to near severe localized wind gusts in a few spots.
A few thunderstorms took a run at the area late last night but stayed just west and northwest of the immediate Tulsa area. This morning a few left-overs did manage to hold together and get into the viewing area. The dry air in the mid levels of the atmosphere will promote strong downdraft potential in some of the decaying showers and storms. The rare heat burst can't be ruled out as the storms move across the area.
The mid level ridge is now displaced slightly to the south allowing for a weak southwest flow aloft to brush the area for the next 36 hours. A weak surface boundary will also be slowly oozing into our area later tonight and early Saturday bringing a slight chance of scattered storms to the region. Model data continues to offer varying solutions regarding the exact placement of the surface boundary but I have a feeling this front will end up slightly near Tulsa and definitely south of Bartlesville. This will create a favorable environment for a few storms near and north of the boundary later tonight and then again Saturday evening. The front is expected to lift northward late Saturday evening into Sunday morning effectively ending our chance for storm activity. Gusty south winds will develop Sunday afternoon with thunderstorms likely in southern and eastern Kansas.
Storms that do form tonight and or Saturday would have the potential to produce strong damaging wind bursts. If storms can root on the boundary, a tornado would be possible Saturday evening with any discrete east moving storm. This would be a very small
The extended data brings the ridge axis back into northeastern OK Monday and Tuesday but also continues to hint at the northwest flow developing across extreme NE OK and SE Kansas by late in the upcoming week. The ensembles have been hinting at this scenario for about 3 weeks.
The temperatures today will be a few degrees cooler than the previous ones with highs in the lower 90s. South winds at 15 to 25 mph will be common along with a mix of sun and clouds after the morning clouds begin to thin.
Temperatures Saturday will be highly dependent on the boundary location and the role of attendant cloud cover but I'll continue the trend of keeping the highs in the upper 80s for Tulsa with some lower 90s possible across southeastern OK.