This morning we find another area of storm activity that is located across western OK. A few of these storms currently across the western half of the state will move east and slightly northeast before they begin to weaken with time and space. A weak frontal boundary is located near the I-44 corridor this morning and will begin lifting northwest as a warm front soon. A mid level area of vorticity formed from last night's thunderstorm activity and is located across the southeastern sections of the Texas panhandle this morning. GFS and NAM data pick up this MCV and move it northeast by midday. Scattered storms will be possible and even likely near and east of this feature. The higher pops will be located across north central OK but a few storms can't be ruled out in the eastern part of the state.
The upper air pattern is undergoing a change and will bring a mid level ridge of high pressure into the region soon. This ridge was forecasted by the ensemble data about 3 weeks ago, and it appears to be right on schedule. A rare victory for the extended ensembles!
This ridge will rule for the next few days, but short term and medium range data suggests an easterly wave will form underneath the ridge and slide across the Arklatex region by late in the weekend. This feature will move from the east to west and will reside under the mid level ridge. I don't think it will have a major impact on our weather or our area, but these features typically bring increased clouds and scattered late afternoon storms to eastern OK. A normal easterly wave will produce scattered storms from about 3pm to sunset, and this will probably be the case Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, but mainly east of highways 69-75.
I don't have a lot of faith in the extended ensembles at this point, but about a week ago, the data was supporting the development of a northwest flow aloft around June 10th and 12th. This would also be a normal June feature allowing active storm complexes to form in the high plains and move down the northwest flow into our area. But the positioning of the mid level ridge holds the key to any northwest flow development and its just impossible to determine when, where, or if this will occur. Climatology points toward this formation soon with the northwest flow usually lasting for a few days sporadically through the month of June. This morning's ensemble data does not offer the northwest flow around the 12th. Go figure.
I'm a basic cable guy, with no fancy subscription channels, no movie channels, and not even a digital box owner. Yep, I'm totally analog. My television weighs about 40lbs and could be used as a boat anchor in the middle of Eufaula on a windy day.
Not only is the cost of cable going up, but my kids seem to be addicted to the box. We do something really crazy in our household: we limit the amount of time our kids can watch TV and play video games. Oh the gnashing of teeth. Every other day is a TV day. This means one day ON and one day OFF. But now that summer time as arrived and the kids are out of school, the one day ON is already getting old.
To counteract the electromagnetic energy flying through the air, we take our kids to the library and they check out about a million books for the summer. They always read em all, and end up winning some kind of summer reading award, which is super great. But back to the cable and this crazy thought running through my head.
I wonder if my kids would still talk to me if I quietly canceled the subscription? Or maybe I should just unplug the cable from the back of the set for a few days and force them to play outside in the water sprinkler? I didn't discover cable until I was a sophomore in high school. Then again, I didn't walk to school in the snow every day either.