As is evident from looking at the first map on the right, some portions of our state received significant rainfall over the last 24 hours. Of particular note is the heavy rain in extreme SW Ok which is the first moisture of any significance they have received this year. The other map on the right is the qpf(quantitative precipitation forecast) valid through this coming Thursday morning. Notice the potential for locally much heavier rains through that period..
Bottom line is that we will be in a very active pattern at least through Tuesday with periods of showers and embedded storms and not only will there be the potential for locally too much rain, but there will also be the potential for some severe storms.
Today, there will be periods of showers and storms throughout the day and the overnight hours. A cool front has made it to just south of I-40 and it will meander around down there for today and Sunday. To the north of the boundary, temperatures will be in the 60s with a N or NE wind, but aloft disturbances will be moving over the boundary creating showers and storms from time to time. That will keep us with a high probability of rainfall not only today but for Easter Sunday as well. Some of these storms may become severe with winds/hail the primary threats. An isolated tornado threat may also occur south of the frontal boundary in the warmer and more unstable air.
That boundary is expected to drift northward on Monday with a return to southerly winds and temperatures back into the 70s. Another round of showers and storms are likely later in the day as the boundary comes back at us in the form of a cool front once again. All modes of severe weather will be possible at that time.
Tuesday is expected to have northerly winds but mostly cloudy skies will likely linger through Wednesday. Also, the cyclonic flow aloft will likely produce additional chances of showers and thunder until later Wed when we should finally see an end to this unsettled pattern.
The latter part of the week now looks to be sunny and mild for Thursday and warmer for Friday.
As always, stay tuned and check back for updates.