Today the main issue will be the gusty wind. South winds from 20 to 35 mph will be common and despite yesterdays drizzle and rain, fire danger issues will again be a headline from Tulsa to central and western OK.
Afternoon temperatures are expected to move into the mid or upper 60s with highs nearing 70 or slightly better around Tulsa to southern OK. A mix of sun and clouds will be common.
A strong cold front will approach the area Friday afternoon but before hand thunderstorms late tonight and early Friday morning will be likely along the extreme OK-Ark state line areas.
Thunderstorms may also form between 4am and 6am near or northeast of Tulsa as a powerful upper level system interacts with our area. Wind shear and upper level dynamics will be extremely strong allowing for strong to near severe storms. Ample wind shear in the lowest level of the atmosphere could lead to a few severe storms despite the early morning time period. The threat of organized severe weather should remain low across Tulsa, but areas east may see a better chance of severe storms with the favored location ending up in Arkansas.
NAM and NSSL data keep almost all precipitation to the east of Tulsa, more so on the OK-ARK state line. GFS and EURO still suggest a healthy pop for the Tulsa metro. I will taper the pop down on the 7 day graphic package from 80% to 60%. This is subject to change, so check back often.
We have been expressing the idea of falling temperatures Friday afternoon for several days but the timing of the cold air may not arrive until after 5pm Friday. At this point we'll continue the message of a warm and windy Friday morning through at least early afternoon before turning much colder during the afternoon and evening hours. Buf files don't really bring the cold stuff into the area until 7pm to 10pm Friday evening, but I express falling temps into the 40 range by 5pm and the upper 30s by 7pm.
The EURO data has been suggesting some additional lift with moisture available for some light snow flurries Saturday while the GFS buf kit point soundings indicate no moisture will be available for any flurry activity. We'll keep the weekend cold and dry.
The temperatures are expected to remain very cold with highs in the lower to mid 30s Saturday afternoon with morning lows in the upper teens or lower 20s Saturday morning.
Early next week morning lows will move back into the upper 20s and lower 30s with afternoon highs in the upper 40s near 50.
The pattern may support another system nearing the area by Wednesday or Thursday.