Poll shows Gore, Bush tied in Wisconsin race

Monday, April 3rd 2000, 12:00 am

By: News On 6

PEWAUKEE, Wis. - A dozen years ago, a candidate named George Bush made his case for the White House before Waukesha County Republican loyalists. Thursday night, his son returned to their annual Lincoln Day dinner doing the same.

"It's a good omen for the Bush family to be here," said Tommy Thompson, the state's governor then and now. "In 1988, I had the honor of introducing Governor George W. Bush's father at this very same dinner, and he went on to win the election in the fall."

No thanks to Wisconsin, which Mr. Bush's father lost that year.

The governor, too, could probably reach the Oval Office without Wisconsin's 11 electoral votes. But neither he nor Vice President Al Gore can concede much of the Midwest, a traditional battleground that holds more clout than usual this year.

"It's going to be extremely close here," said Polly Briley, who runs a media consulting company in Oshkosh and serves as the Winnebago County Democratic chairwoman. "Wisconsin has a great, proud tradition of being kind of hard to predict. We are very progressive on some things, but we tend to be more conservative on fiscal matters."

In the presidential matchup, Mr. Gore and Mr. Bush both enjoy big regional strongholds: Mr. Gore the Northeast and the far West, Mr. Bush the South and the farm belt.

That means the two are paying extra attention to the Midwest - which suits voters such as Debbie Hauer, 41, just fine.

She's an assistant manager at a bowling alley in Sheboygan, a conservative, blue-collar town where many workers make plumbing fixtures for Kohler.

Her preference is Mr. Bush, but each candidate has plenty of local support, she said, adding that Midwesterners are flattered to get such attention.

"We're never much of a factor," she said.

With the Wisconsin primary on Tuesday, the candidates both campaigned in Milwaukee this week. Monday, Mr. Gore pushed his campaign-finance reform plan at Milwaukee's Marquette University. Thursday, Mr. Bush offered details of his plans to improve public schools and toured a Harley-Davidson factory.

Midwest in middle

Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Indiana and Wisconsin control nearly a third of the electoral votes needed to win the White House.

"The two coasts are more liberal, the South is the most conservative, and the Midwest is in the middle," said Dr. John C. McAdams, a political scientist at Marquette University.

For instance:

* In Illinois, the biggest prize in the neighborhood, Republicans have held the governor's mansion for 16 years. But the state went for Mr. Clinton in 1992 and 1996.

And Illinois has supported every presidential winner but two for the last 100 years: Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Woodrow Wilson 60 years earlier.

* Ohio has a similar record for the last century, missing only on Franklin Roosevelt in 1944 and John Kennedy in 1960. No Republican has ever been elected president without winning Ohio.

* Michigan has an impressive record of its own, though it stretches back only 10 contests. It has become such a bellwether that in 1992, 1988 and 1984, the statewide and national votes were within 1 percentage point.

All of which shows that the region is middle-of-the-road politically, Dr. McAdams said, so "what works nationwide works in the Midwest."

Issues such as improving education and protecting Social Security have broad support. Gun control, abortion and tax cuts may prove more problematic, he said. And each side is vulnerable on issues that appeal to their respective bases.

He said in states where unions are so prevalent, Mr. Bush would be foolish to emphasize resistance to a minimum wage increase, just as Mr. Gore could hurt himself by talking about gay rights, he said.

Strong image

Dr. McAdams expects each candidate to work at least as hard on projecting a certain image as on laying out specific programs. "A lot of Americans don't have clear policy preferences, but they know who looks like a strong leader. They know if you look apologetic, you look defensive and weak," he said.

Parts of the Midwest seem relatively safe for one side or the other.

Indiana has been solidly Republican for decades; the last Democrat to win there was LBJ in 1964.

Wisconsin has voted Democratic in five of the last six presidential elections. Ronald Reagan carried the state for the GOP in 1984. And it has sent two liberal Democrats to the U.S. Senate, thanks largely to the voting strength in the biggest cities, Madison and Milwaukee.

Last Sunday, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel published a poll that showed Mr. Gore and Mr. Bush tied, but with nearly three in 10 Wisconsin voters undecided.

Many of those backed Arizona Sen. John McCain before he dropped out of the GOP race, and each side is scrambling to attract its share of that bloc.

One McCain supporter, Charles Rutkowski, a retired maintenance worker who lives in Marathon County, told the Milwaukee paper that he saw few policy differences between the candidates but prefers Mr. Gore as a person, calling Mr. Bush "a snot."

But experts say the state's leftward tilt conceals an opportunity for Mr. Bush, as evidenced by the 14-year tenure of Mr. Thompson.

In 1996, Republican nominee Bob Dole made little effort to win Wisconsin. Mr. Bush has yet to concede the state.

"If he doesn't write off this state, he can do fairly well here," said home builder Frank Madden of Waukesha, west of Milwaukee, at Thursday's Lincoln Day dinner. "Education is a high priority here, and he seems to be on top of that issue."

The next day in Green Bay, a half-dozen supporters gathered outside Brett Favre's Steakhouse for a chance to see Mr. Bush. All said they planned to back the governor.

"We've had enough of that junk up there in Washington," said Naomi Aberg , a retired teacher. "And I like his mother."

"I've got a long memory. Eight years of the current idiot is enough. No reason to put his clone the tree in there," security officer Don Zimmerman said, referring to Mr. Gore and his interest in the environment.

Speaking with reporters Friday in Green Bay, Mr. Bush said he was undeterred by the fact that his father never carried Wisconsin in two tries.

"This is a state that has the capacity of change. It's a swing state. I think most Wisconsins will like the message of reform," he said.

Mr. Thompson said his constituents "feel pretty bad about turning out George Bush's father and putting in Bill Clinton. And now they have the opportunity to reverse that and have George W. lead America."

Staff writer Todd J. Gillman in Dallas contributed to this report.