A surface ridge of high pressure builds into the area today from the north bringing pleasant weather into northeastern OK. Temps will start this morning in the upper 40s near the metro with a few cooler readings in the eastern valleys before reaching the lower to mid-70s again this afternoon. The presence of the ridge will bring lighter wind speeds through the area today. Despite a few clouds associated with a northwest flow wave moving across central Kanas, today will be the best weather day of the week with light winds compared to yesterday. This disturbance this morning will bring some high based showers across far southeastern Kansas but the probability for any sprinkles across far northeastern OK will remain very low. The ridge moves east later today with south winds returning later this evening as our next upper level wave begins to journey down the plains Thursday night into Friday bringing another shot of showers and storms through the area. The positioning of the surface low with this next system may keep higher chances for severe weather slightly southwest or south of the immediate metro, even though we may still track a few strong to severe storms with this approaching system.
The upper air flow will continue to be from the northwest for the next few days, which is more normal for June than early May. But the oddity will be the airmass associated with this developing system. It almost reminds me of a signal used in winter when arctic air intrusions are likely. A strong and compact shortwave trough will dive down from the northwest opening the pattern for a major cold air intrusion from the Hudson Bay region southward into the eastern third of the nation. The state of Oklahoma will remain slightly on the western edge of this pattern but should benefit from cooler weather into the weekend while the coldest air arrives across the Midwest into the eastern half of the nation. There may even be some snow across part of the northeastern U.S. Friday.
As the system approaches our area Thursday, a few showers and storms will develop through the day, including a chance for Thursday morning to midday for some activity. This batch should remain below severe levels. The northern sections of the region could experience easterly winds as the surface low developing along the Panhandle begins dropping southward toward the Red River Valley Thursday night. Southeast surface winds will back into the system, but deeper moisture and higher parameters for strong to severe storms may be more likely across the Red River Valley and into southwestern to southcentral OK. A surface cold front will move across the state from the northwest to southeast as the low drops southward, and convergence along this boundary combined with adequate upper level support may yield some strong to near severe storms late Thursday into early Friday as the front moves across the area. The main window for the metro currently appears from midnight to 3am Friday. Much cooler and dry air will arrive behind the front with Friday afternoon highs staying in the 60s.
Saturday morning the colder air mass is enveloping the eastern half of the nation and we’re also experiencing noticeably cooler weather for the weekend. Saturday morning should start in the upper 30s to lower before highs rebound into the mid to upper 60s with north winds and mostly sunny conditions. Another fast-moving front moves across the state Sunday, but moisture will remain limited. Sunday morning lows will also start in the 40s, but highs may reach near 70. Monday the data does diverge slightly, but basically another upper level impulse arrives that could bring a few showers with weather Monday and Tuesday. The upper air pattern regresses to normal later next week with southwest flow, warmer weather and increasing storm threats.