Once again, more rain chances this morning, including the potential for pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall.
A flood watch remains in effect across most of central and eastern OK, including the Tulsa metro through Thursday morning. Another round of storm activity is possible Thursday morning before a strong cold front move across the area Thursday evening with strong to severe storms either near or south of the I-44 corridor.
This boundary, highly unusual for late July, will bring very pleasant weather this weekend with morning lows in the mid-60s and afternoon highs in the lower 80s Saturday to the mid-80s Sunday. The low-level moisture plots are also expected to dry out some and we’ll not anticipate any major heat index values for the weekend.
The first weekend in August will be a pleasant one with only a slight chance of a shower late Saturday evening into early Sunday morning.
Tropical moisture remains entrenched across eastern OK this morning. A slow-moving disturbance (MCV) is located slightly west of the metro and will slowly move eastward this morning through midday. Rain with some isolated thunder will produce heavy rainfall near and ahead of this feature, with localized amounts from 1 to 4 inches possible. Temps will remain in the lower 70s this morning and will rebound into the lower or mid-80s later Wednesday afternoon as this wave exits the area with a heat index in the lower 90s.
We may have another round early Thursday morning, but my confidence in this chance remains low. Thursday also should feature highs nearing the lower 90s with afternoon heat index values over 100 before the strong cold front moves across the area Thursday night. This system may bring some severe weather threats back to a part of the area.
The main upper-level ridge, typically parked over the state in late July and early August, is positioned across the southwestern U.S. this morning and expanding northward. This ridge may strengthen some in the next few hours which will allow a stronger upper airflow from the northwest later this afternoon and evening. A stout upper-level disturbance will drop across the intermountain region this morning and travel across the plains this evening providing more storms from southcentral Kansas into northern OK later tonight into early Thursday morning. The wind shear will be increasing with this system and would be enough for a few strong to severe storms. The atmosphere ahead of this boundary will also become moderately unstable with daytime heating Thursday afternoon. The main threat with any severe storm activity should be damaging winds and possibly some small hail. But heavy rainfall will also be likely and additional flooding chances will be mentioned. The timing of the front may be faster than advertised a few days ago, and this may also bring the strong to severe threats more southward by Thursday afternoon and evening.
A few leftover showers will remain possible Friday afternoon across both far northeastern and southeastern OK with highs reaching the lower 80s.
The weekend should be dry for most of the period, but I have included a low chance for a few showers Saturday night into Sunday as a weak disturbance may be nearing the northern OK region.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!