Warmer for the Weekend, Chance of Showers.

After another chilly start to our day, temperatures warmed up nicely this afternoon as you can see on the statewide max/min map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet.  For Tulsa, we were 70/31 so quite a diurnal range, particularly in comparison to the 58/36 that is normal at this time of year.

[img]

The gusty southerly winds that developed during the day today will subside somewhat overnight then become strong and gusty through Monday so there will continue to be fire danger concerns.  However, those strong southerly winds will also bring more moisture back over the state resulting in higher humidity levels, particularly on Sunday and Monday.  That will help mitigate the fire danger somewhat and there will also be the possibility of some drizzle on Sunday and some showers on Monday to help in that regard as well.

At any rate, those southerly winds will hold temperatures generally in the 40s for tonight, so a much milder start to our day.  Clouds will be on the increase for Saturday and overcast skies are expected for Sunday.  The clouds will hold our daytime highs generally in the 60s for Saturday and Sunday and also result in much warmer nights for Sunday morning and again Monday morning.  In fact, we will be so much warmer that our nights will be closer to our normal daytime highs by then.

Our next cold front is on track to move through the state Monday night followed by northerly winds and a brief cool-down for Tuesday and into the day Wednesday.  As you can see on our forecast page, this is not expected to be a particularly strong system, so temperatures will still be running above normal, particularly for our daytime highs.  We also expect lots of sunshine for Tuesday into the latter part of the week.

That front will be preceded by at least a chance of some showers or drizzle during the day Monday and possibly some storms along the front itself for Monday night.  Given the strength of the winds at the surface and aloft, some of those storms could be severe but it is far too early to get any more specific than that.  One thing that the data continues to suggest though is that we will once again be on the western fringe of the better quality moisture as you can see on the 7 day QPF map.  We certainly need a good soaking rain, but conditions continue to favor locations much further east for the greater rainfall potential.

[img]

After that, the rest of next week looks to be pretty quiet with perhaps another front arriving along about Friday or early Saturday of next week.  Once again though, the longer range guidance still suggests the better moisture will be further east.  In fact, the 8-14 day outlook continues to keep the better rain chances further east and we remain on the western fringe of the quality moisture.  Temperatures over that time frame are also expected to remain above normal which has been a continuation of a trend for quite some time now.

[img]

[img]

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot